Will there be one other lockdown in 2022?

The emergence of the Omicron variant is inflicting concern all over the world, not least as a result of it’s considered extremely transmissible and since the 32 mutations of its spike protein counsel it’d find a way to withstand present vaccines.

The UK has recorded 246,780 confirmed instances of the pressure up to now and no less than 75 deaths, prompting ongoing fears that extra extreme social restrictions may quickly be imposed on the British public.

Though many scientists imagine the brand new variant is milder than earlier mutations, it stays unclear how lots of the report variety of folks contaminated will find yourself in hospital, severely in poor health or dying.

Previous to Christmas, prime minister Boris Johnson stated that no additional restrictions can be launched forward of the vacation, explaining that “that folks may go forward with their plans”, a choice that allowed him to keep away from a repeat of his infamous tackle of 19 December 2020, when he reluctantly imposed robust new measures on the final minute and dashed the festive hopes of tens of millions.

Since then, the UK has continued to expertise extraordinarily excessive ranges of Covid infections throughout the festive interval, with whole day by day instances in England rocketing to a pandemic excessive of 218,724 on 4 January, based on the UK Well being Safety Company.

However the authorities has up to now caught to its weapons and refused to impose additional Covid restrictions in England for now, with Mr Johnson insisting on Monday that the present “Plan B” restrictions in place remained the “proper” plan of action, including: “The best way ahead for the nation as an entire is to proceed with the trail that we’re on.

“We’ll preserve the whole lot on the assessment course we preserve all measures below assessment, however the combination of issues that we’re doing for the time being is I feel, the precise one.”

That stance was supported by vaccines minister Maggie Throup the next morning, who advised Sky Information: “Plan B is working, as you may see from the variety of hospitalisations – it’s far, far fewer than this time final yr… It’s vital that we comply with the information.”

The PM reiterated his hope that Britain would have the ability to “experience out” the assault from Omicron with out additional measures in a press convention from Downing Road on Tuesday night, regardless of no fewer than 24 NHS trusts reporting “vital incidents” of workers shortages.

In Scotland, nonetheless, Nicola Sturgeon introduced recent restrictions on sporting occasions and enormous gatherings and cancelled Edinburgh’s annual Hogmanay avenue social gathering previous to Christmas, having already requested Scots to maintain family mixing to a minimal.

Wales and Northern Eire additionally imposed new curbs, closing nightclubs and limiting hospitality to the rule of six and returning to desk service solely.

‘Rule nothing out’

In his video message from Downing Road on 21 December when he stated the vacation season can be allowed to proceed unchecked, Mr Johnson stated: “We are able to’t rule out any additional measures after Christmas – and we’re going to maintain a relentless eye on the information, and we’ll do no matter it takes to guard public well being.”

He stated ministers had been monitoring the information “hour by hour” and that the arguments for taking additional motion had been “very, very finely balanced”.

“Sadly I have to say to those that we must reserve the opportunity of taking additional motion to guard the general public, to guard public well being, to guard our NHS,” he added.

“We’re taking a look at every kind of issues to maintain Omicron below management and we are going to rule nothing out.”

The prime minister is known to have been ready for extra knowledge on the variant to turn out to be obtainable earlier than he decided, a stance that noticed him accused of “dithering” by scientists and his political opponents.

Against this, London mayor Sadiq Khan had been decisive when he declared a significant incident over the extent of the outbreak within the capital on 18 December, whereas NHS England introduced a return to its highest degree of emergency preparedness, degree 4 nationwide incident, which means that the well being service’s response will probably be coordinated as a nationwide effort, relatively than led by particular person trusts.

Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance is claimed to have led the decision for recent measures to drive down an infection charges and ease the stress on the NHS, however these have up to now been resisted by senior Cupboard ministers loath to additional jeopardise the economic system and constrain particular person freedom with out extra knowledge to justify it.

Sir Patrick’s fellow advisers have been equally outspoken, with Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the federal government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warning that Omicron is “coming at us like an specific prepare” and insisting that the federal government should give the general public a “good, clear message” about how “severe the disaster is”.

Plan C?

The prospect of introducing a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown has been mooted – and seems to be broadly fashionable with the general public – with plans made obtainable to ministers for consideration and apparently together with a ban on assembly others indoors aside from work functions and limiting pubs and eating places to outside service solely.

However it’s clear the PM hopes the take up of booster vaccines, together with the partial “Plan B” restrictions lately launched, will probably be sufficient to see off the menace.

As a part of these measures, Britons are at present once more being ordered to put on face masks in outlets, cinemas, theatres and locations of worship and on public transport and to work at home order the place attainable.

The federal government has additional revised its method to vaccine booster jabs, planning to make them obtainable to all over-18s by the tip of December and halving the period of time between second and third injections from six months to 3, all within the hope of staving off the dreaded “tidal wave” of infections we’re already starting to see.

In accordance with official knowledge, nearly 34.6m folks have acquired a booster jab thus far.

Some type of “Plan C” – a circuit-breaker, or tighter restrictions – could possibly be essential if Omicron begins to disrupt the NHS however there’s clearly little political urge for food for a fourth nationwide lockdown.

However Sage advisers stay unambiguous in calling for stricter curbs, with the influential Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial Faculty London overtly entertaining the likelihood for a number of weeks.

The larger image

Even earlier than Omicron started to solid its sinister shadow throughout the globe, many Britons had been already glancing anxiously in direction of the continent as Austria and the Netherlands reintroduced lockdowns in response to spiking instances of Covid-19.

The World Well being Organisation (WHO) had stated it was “very apprehensive” concerning the unfold in Europe and warned 700,000 extra deaths could possibly be recorded by March except pressing motion is taken, bringing the whole to 2.2 million for the reason that pandemic started.

Previous to the newest worrying developments sparked by Omicron, Mr Johnson’s authorities had been deeply reluctant to reimpose restrictions in any respect, regardless of constantly excessive case numbers.

Whereas the vaccines have constantly stored dying charges low for the reason that spring, an infection ranges have remained constantly excessive, sometimes hovering across the 40,000-per-day mark however in latest days have been greater than double that.

Mr Johnson may be involved that additional restrictions may result in social dysfunction, having seen anti-lockdown protests – a few of them violent – erupt in Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Croatia.

Londoners had been definitely sad concerning the preliminary return of the masks mandate, accusing the PM of hypocrisy for declining to put on one himself at a number of public engagements.

Nevertheless, in different quarters, there seemed to be a transparent urge for food for brand spanking new restrictions even earlier than Omicron, no less than based on the polls.

A survey by Savanta ComRes revealed that 45 per cent of adults can be in favour of a selective lockdown focusing on solely those that had declined to get their Covid jabs and subsequently may pose an ongoing threat to others.

However, till Omicron threw a recent spanner into the works, there was a reputable case for believing that the UK was in such a powerful place that it may keep away from the worst of the outbreak marauding throughout Europe.

Though Britain’s an infection charge has remained excessive for months, it has additionally been extremely steady till lately, lingering at a seven-day common of round 600 day by day instances per million folks, whereas Austria and the Netherlands have instantly spiked to 1,500 and 1,250 respectively from nicely beneath that place to begin for the reason that starting of October.

A part of the explanation for that is that the UK was hit by the extra infectious Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus sooner and was subsequently in a position to deal with them forward of its European neighbours and unlock earlier.